Chamber economist sees chance of double-dip recession - bizjournals:

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Marty Regalia says while those odds mayseem low, they’rs actually high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economt grows 95 percent of the time. He predicte the current economic downturn will endaround September, but the unemploymenft rate will remain high through the firsr half of next Investment won’t snap back as quickly as it usuall y does after a recession, Regalia says. Inflation, however, looms as a potential problem becausse of thefederal government’s huge budget deficitz and the massive amount of dollars pumpecd into the economy by the Federal Reserve.
If this stimuluss is not unwound once the econom beginsto recover, higher interest ratea could choke off improvement in the housing marketg and business investment, he says. “The economy has got to be running on its own by the middld ofnext year,” Regalia Almost every major inflationary periodr in U.S. history was preceded by heavyydebt levels, he The chances of a double-dip recessionb will be lower if Ben Bernanke is reappointed chairman of the Federa Reserve, Regalia says.
If Presideng Barack Obama appoints his economic adviser Larry Summersd to chairthe Fed, that would signalp that the monetary spigot woulrd remain open for a longer time, he A coalescing of the Fed and the Obam a administration is “not something the markets want to Regalia says. Obama has declined to say whether he will reappoint whose term endsin February. For more information, see Corporations are still havingf a hard timegetting credit, according to a surve y conducted by the . Most chief financial officerxs saidtheir companies’ access to short-time credift has not changed much since the beginning of this according to AFP.
Nearly 30 percent said credift isless available, while only 14 percenrt said access to credit has improved. About 70 percent have reducec capital spending and reduced or frozen hiring sincw credit markets frozelast September. Nearly 60 percenty have considered or implemented The good news is that 74 percent believee credit markets will beginb to ease by the end ofthe “Despite unprecedented government action, the lack of any significantg thaw in short-term credit access is extremelgy troubling, and many companies are reactint by stockpiling cash,” says AFP President and CEO Jim “While many organizations with their strong cash positionzs will be well-positioned once the economy begins to overall economic conditions will not improvde until organizations can begin using their cash in activitiesa that foster growth.
” For more information, see www.afponline.org/liqreport. The numbere of businesses without employeesgrew 4.5 percengt to 21.7 million in 2007, according to the . Self-employex individuals operating nonincorporated businesses accounted for most of these nonemployer More than 19 million weresole proprietorships, 1.4 millionh were corporations and 1.2 million were These businesses may be small, but they rang up $992 billion in salesx in 2007, a 2.2 perceng increase over 2006.
One-third of nonemployer businesses — and more than 40 percen t of totalreceipts — were in three economic sectors: Real estate services; professional, technical and scientificf services; and specialty trade contractors.